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Will the French elections provide another shock?

In the past 12 months we have seen the world shift with two seismic decisions from two different electorates – are we about to see a third?

On 23rd June 2016 we saw Britain vote to leave the EU in the Brexit referendum and in the US on 9th November Donald Trump was elected President.

On the 7th May France’s next President will be elected in a run-off election. Two candidates with two very different agendas.

What does this mean for the euro?

Pro-European centrist Emmanuel Macron and anti-immigration leader Marine Le Pen have begun a final duel for the French Presidency. Macron is clear favourite to become France’s youngest president after topping the April 23 ballot with 23.75 percent of votes, slightly ahead of Le Pen on 21.53 percent, according to final results.

Le Pen is the leader of France’s National Front (FN) and has vowed to cut immigration. After Brexit she praised the British people for standing up to the “totalitarian EU, that prison of people”. Frexit is next, she vowed. This will certainly have a very negative impact on the euro and if elected we should see the euro weaken significantly.

Macron represents En Marche, a centrist political movement he founded in April 2016. Staunchly pro-European and pro-business a win for Macron will certainly benefit the euro and should see the single currency continue to strengthen.

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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