Will UK Growth Contract?

8th July 2019 Market Update

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🇬🇧 GBP –  Last week continued the ongoing worries for the UK as the pound struggled to hold any position in the market, ending with the currency reaching new lows against the dollar and euro. This was the result of the UK’s construction and services PMI coming in lower than forecasted. Economists are now predicting the UK economies first quarterly contraction 7 years, estimating a figure of -0.1%. This partnered with the looming threat of a no deal Brexit places the UK in a worrying position.

Following on from the stream of private sector data last week, this The National Institute Of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will provide their estimate on Wednesday for growth in the three months leading up to June. Analysts expect the NIESR to estimate a contraction of 0.1% – which could well add to the woes for the pound.

🇪🇺 EUR – From the Eurozone not much to report on regarding data, however the ECB welcomes its new president, Christine Lagarde who will take the seat in November. Lagarde is a firm believer in cheaper borrowing, this view quickly translated into higher stock market values and a market downtrend shift in projected interest rates.

From the eurozone, the only notable data are the German inflation figures on Friday.

🇺🇸 USD –  One of the financial markets most reliable indicators of a recession is also leaving investors worried, as an inverted US yield curve points to an approaching recession. This also supports worries on the UK, as the famous saying stands “The US sneezes, and the world catches a cold”. Despite US employment figures rising to 3.7%, Non-farm employment change resulted at 224K from the forecasted 162K which meant the dollar continued to gain momentum.

From the US we have the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday evening, which markets will look to take hints from as to what the Fed may do in next week’s interest rate decision. US inflation figure are due for release on Friday, forecasted to be revised lower to 1.5%.

 

Summary:

GBP: Sterling still at multi-month lows ahead of GDP data
EUR: German inflation figures only in focus
USD: FOMC minutes in focus


 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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