us federal reserve

US raises interest rates

14th December 2017 Market Update

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?? GBP – Yesterday’s on-track Average Earnings figure had no effect on the pound, which continues to trade in the middle of nowhere versus its major counterparts. Last night saw the government suffer its first Brexit Bill defeat, with the house voting for an amendment that gives Parliament an acceptance vote on the final Brexit deal. For now, however, markets are not reacting and Sterling maintains its position. The real driver here remains what sort of deal Britain will come away with.

Today sees the monthly interest rate decision and policy statement from the BoE. Nothing out of the ordinary is expected, with rates likely to remain at 0.5%. As ever, much hinges on what Mark Carney subsequently says.

We also have Retail Sales month-on-month data out this morning.

?? EUR – With little happening economically recently, the euro has been quietly chugging along. However, today brings a modicum of excitement as, along with the UK, it is interest rate decision day from the ECB. Unfortunately, no changes are anticipated, with rates likely to be kept on hold at 0.0%. It is unlikely that Mario Draghi will pull up too many trees with his ensuing statement.

?? USD – As expected, the US Fed raised interest rates yesterday evening to 1.5%. This, along with a disappointing Core CPI figure, had little impact on the dollar. Markets usually move on major surprises and a rate rise had been anticipated and priced in for some time.

This afternoon brings Retail Sales data month-on-month, which is slated to be positive. A downside shock could see the dollar come under pressure.

 

Key Announcements

?? GBP
13:00pm: UK Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement

?? EUR
13:45pm: EU Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement

?? USD
14:30pm: US Core Retail/Retail Sales m/m

 

Summary: The big news happened after hours yesterday, with the US raising interest rates by 0.25% and the government suffering Commons defeat in the latest Brexit bill amendment vote. Neither event had any impact on exchange rates.

 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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