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US Jobs in focus today

6th April 2018 Market Update

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?? GBP – Services data showed a marked fall as the reading missed expectations yesterday. With little else out from the UK, the pound fell losing significant ground against the dollar but also trading slightly lower against the euro by the end of the day. Today, there are no data releases from the UK. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will however be speaking in Amsterdam at the International Climate Risk Conference for Supervisors, though this is unlikely to be market moving.

?? EUR – German and Eurozone services data showed a lower figure yesterday morning after a disappointing set of factory orders from Germany earlier in the morning. The euro however maintained its footing as the market all but ignored the news.
Very quiet day for the euro today, with only German industrial production out this morning which has disappointed and has seen the euro fall slightly.

?? USD – Renewed positivity from yesterday carried through in the US markets today helping the dollar gain across the board. Though a widening trade gap capped the dollar gains as the reading of a deficit of $57.6 billion released today is biggest since October 2008. The figures suggest trade may reduce the pace of US economic growth in the first quarter of 2018.US jobs data will be the highlight of the day, with all important Non-farm payrolls due this afternoon. Whilst a poor reading of almost half of the month prior is expected for the payrolls, a better set of results for the overall unemployment rate and average earnings could balance out the data and have little effect on the dollar. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook before the Economic Club of Chicago this evening also.

 

Key Announcements

?? GBP
16:15pm BoE Mark Carney Speech

?? USD

13:30pm Non-Farm Payrolls expected at 190k from previous 313k.

13:30pm Unemployment Rate expected at 4% from previous 4.1%.

13:30pm Average hourly earnings expected at 2.7% from previous 2.6%.

18:30pm Fed’s Jerome Powell speech.

 

Summary: UK Services data surprised the markets as the reading tumbled yesterday. Services accounts for almost 80% of the UK economy and the fall in yesterday’s data is likely to have an impact of the UK’s growth figure going forward. Overnight, US President Trump instructed officials to consider a further $100B in tariffs against China, escalating an already tense trade standoff. Today, US jobs will be in focus as the all-important non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate figures are released today.

 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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