US-Iran tensions in the spotlight

9th January 2020 Market Update

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?? GBP - There was no data of significance from the UK yesterday. Back to Brexit – Brussels has warned the UK, that its hopes of a far-reaching trade deal will be dented if London doesn’t stick closely to EU rules. It seems von der Leyen is trying to take control of negotiations at these early stages, despite stating that talks were starting from a position of “goodwill”. Like yesterday, there is no data of note being released from the UK. Mark Carney is speaking at a conference titled “The Future of Inflation Targeting Conference” although it is unlikely to affect the market.

?? EUR - Like the UK, there was no significant data from Europe yesterday. However, a couple reasons for concern were the German factory orders and French trade balance. Both readings were worse than the market’s expectations. Despite this, German industrial production figures were above expectations this morning at 1.1%, despite Germany’s falling trade balance. Employment figures are being released from across Europe at 10am, although unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro.

?? USD -  Despite concerns about the escalating tension between the US and Iran, it appears that the US will only be economically belligerent in the short term, as opposed to escalating military tensions with further strikes. With regards to data, the ADP non-farm employment change exceeded market expectations yesterday to 202,000. This acts as a precursor to Friday’s non-farm employment change. A strong reading with this piece of data could allow the dollar to maintain its short-term strength.

Today both FOMC members Clarida, Kashkari and Williams are speaking. Unemployment claims are also being released and are expected to be in line with last month’s reading.

Summary:

GBP: Mark Carney speaks today in what is a quiet day for the UK
EUR: Employment figures from Europe are released at 10am
USD: ADP non-farm employment figures strong prior to tomorrow’s non-farm employment figures

 

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