30th March 2017 Market Update
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?? GBP – Yesterday saw a historic moment for the UK, with the triggering of Article 50 and the delivery of the Prime Minister’s official letter. In the lead up, Sterling had been losing ground, but investors reacted positively to the tone of Theresa May’s statement in Parliament and the pound made instant gains, particularly versus the euro. This was likely due to the fact that although Mrs May repeated much of what she has said previously, there was no mention of ‘no deal being better than a bad deal’. Indeed, it appears that both sides are keen to reach a mutually beneficial agreement in the protracted negotiations to come.
The pound has maintained its rally against the euro to open over 1% up on yesterday morning’s figure. There is no data out in the UK today.
?? EUR – Having started the day in a stronger position, the currency lost ground following the triggering of Article 50. Donald Tusk did hawkishly say that he misses us already, so perhaps markets have taken that as a sign of weakness.
?? USD – Following the best consumer confidence figures since the dot com boom years, the dollar rebounded from the lows of the past few days. Whilst President Trump struggles and his approval ratings diminish, it seems that public sentiment is still positive.
Today sees a lot of important data from across the pond, topped by GDP figures. A strong showing here could well see the greenback recover much of its recent losses. However, weak data could reinforce the view that Trump is achieving nothing.
12:30pm – US Jobless Claims.
12:30pm – US GDP Annualised Q4.
Our View: Sterling’s direction going forward will be dictated by the progress of the ongoing negotiations with the EU. It’s a positive start, with both parties seemingly looking to find the best outcome for all. Now that the UK is officially beginning to leave, it will be interesting to see what effect this has on the upcoming French and German elections.
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