10th April 2018 Market Update
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?? GBP – Despite a torrid week of data last week, the pound remained resolute and held its ground against most of its trading partners. The fears of a cliff edge scenario next March when the UK formally leaves the EU appears to have been avoided.
Brexit fears are of course likely to re-surface over the coming months but for now the pound can bask in relative optimism. Due to GBP’s below average trading levels it could even find itself the benefactor of the ‘risk-off’ mode as the market finds itself with investors favouring to hold pounds as it’s unlikely to lose much further ground.
?? EUR – The Telegraph reported new fears of a new Eurozone recession, despite most mainstream outlets reporting the robust health of the economy of the single market. Germany is highlighted as the epicentre of this latest spout of weakness, with falling factory orders, industrial production and retail sales all highlighted as clear evidence that Merkel’s weakened government is losing its grip.
?? USD – Trade Wars dominate the rhetoric in the US. Trumps foreign policy has so often been at the forefront of his presidency thus far with the China saga adding to episodes with North Korea, Russia, Turkey and Mexico. The dollar has thus far struggled when fears of flashpoints have heightened, expect this trend to continue.
09:30am: MPC Member Haldane Speaks
12:30pm: PPI & Core PPI
12:30pm: Building Permits
Summary: The dollar yesterday resumed where it had left off on Friday after disappointing non-farm figures from the US.
The greenback slid against most of its trading partners throughout the day, the dollar index finishing the day about half a percent lower. Concerns of a full-blown trade war between the US and China continue to persist. Despite Trump’s soothing words over the weekend, reports surfaced from Beijing that the People’s Bank of China are set to devalue the yuan, further stoking fears.
Fears of a trade war have thus far pushed the dollar lower, this will be one of the key drivers of the dollar over the coming weeks.
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