UK Jobs Report in Focus

16th April 2019 Market Update

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🇬🇧 GBP –  There was very little movement in sterling markets in the absence of any significant data or news flows.

Today however might be a bit more interesting with the release of the latest employment figures. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 3.9% in the three months leading up to February and wage growth is also expected to follow suit at 3.4%. Any diversion either side of what’s forecasted could well create the volatility the market craves.

Sterling remains in a relatively tight range versus the majors but there was quite a strong surge for the pound versus the commodity-based currencies such as the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollar and the South African rand. This weakness in these currencies could well be ahead of the slowdown in China growth due out tomorrow expected to drop to 6.3% – the lowest since the 2008 credit crunch.

🇪🇺 EUR – Similar story with the euro yesterday in what was a lacklustre day.

Today’s survey from the ZEW Institute could well move markets with economists expected to be downbeat about the current economic situation but optimistic about future prospects. The German survey is expected to come in at 0.8 from -3.6 and the eurozone survey is expected to come in at 1.2 from -2.5.

🇺🇸 USD –  The dollar moves were also subdued yesterday. Talks between China and the US are still ongoing with treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin warning that more work is required for a deal to be done.

Focus today will fall on industrial production, expected to come in higher at 0.2% for the month of March.

 

Summary:
GBP: Unemployment predicted to remain at 44 year low
EUR: ZEW survey to provide sentiment on business today
USD: Industrial production in focus today


 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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