11th June 2018 Market Update
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?? GBP – Following a quiet end to last week, the UK is the only major with any data being released today, which is manufacturing production figures. This is expected in increase, with the market roughly expecting a rise by 0.3%.
This week average earnings and CPI are also being released from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. If both these figures are good, it could signal potential interest rate rise for the UK.
?? EUR – There is no data being released from the Eurozone today. This week the eurozone will be in the spotlight on Thursday, as its main refinancing rate is being released. This is expected to stay at 0%, and will no doubt be overshadowed by the press conference 45 minutes later. Here the ECB will provide forward guidance and suggest whether this rate will change down the line.
?? USD – Despite Trump refusing to sign the G7 communique at the weekend and appearing to fall out with the US’s closest allies by threatening further tariffs, the dollar has only slightly weakened since the markets reopened. There is no data of note today from the US, although this week will be very data heavy. CPI is being released on Tuesday, the Fed are expected to increase interest rates to 2% on Wednesday and retail sales data is being released Thursday. The plethora of data this week could mean quite a bit of volatility for the US dollar.
09:30am: Manufacturing Production m/m
Summary: There was very little data from the major currencies on Friday, meaning there was little movement between the currency pairings going in to this weekend’s G7 meetings. Despite Trump lashing out at the meeting and refusing to sign the G7 communique there was little dollar movement in response.
Today the focus will be on the UK’s manufacturing production figures. This week will be data heavy in particular for the US, with the market expecting the Fed to increase interest rates to 2% on Wednesday. Europe will be in the spotlight Thursday as the main refinancing rate is expected to stay at 0%, however the ECB press conference that follows will provide forward guidance.
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