7th August 2019 Market Update
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🇬🇧 GBP – There was no data of significance from the UK yesterday. Despite this, sterling appeared to receive some much-needed support against the euro and dollar. Its fall against the euro halted, and it strengthened marginally against the US dollar yesterday. Michael Gove has been quick to point the finger at Brussels for no developments on a new deal, with the EU’s stance being that Brexit negotiations are concluded. Today, like yesterday, there is no data of note from the UK.
🇪🇺 EUR – German factory orders beat expectations yesterday morning, though markets didn’t seem too interested and Brexit news continued to be the focus.
Today, we have a very quiet day on the data front with only German industrial production already released, this missed the mark by a considerable amount but hasn’t hurt the euro this morning.
🇺🇸 USD – The widely watched treasury market recession indicator flattened further yesterday. This has historically been a reliable indicator of a forthcoming recession in the US. The flattening gained momentum after Fed’s Bullard, who is considered to be one of the most dovish members, said that the Fed has already reacted to trade uncertainty and that the Fed should not react to short-term moves in the markets and trade negotiations. But did also go on to say that he would not rule out any further policy changes. China also reassured a number of foreign exporters that the yuan would not continue to weaken and in the US the White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow reassured markets that the US remains committed to trade negotiations with China.
Today, we are not expecting any data of note from the US.
GBP: Brexit news continues to be the focus in an otherwise quiet day
EUR: German industrial data slips but does little to hurt the euro
USD: China halts the fall in the Yuan as the White House reassures that they are still committed to trade negotiations
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