GBP Data Takes Centre Stage This Week

11th February 2019 Market Update

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?? GBP - Sterling bounced back from is two-week lows against the dollar on Thursday following Mark Carney’s closing remarks on super Thursday. This means GBP/EUR and GBP/USD remains at very similar levels to this time last week. There is key economic data from the UK today, and this will potentially move sterling outside of the current resistance levels. GDP and Prelim GDP are expected to fall from previous readings, while manufacturing production data is expected to show an improvement. CPI is also being released on Wednesday from the UK, and this is expected to drop further from the previous reading of 2.1% to 1.9%. CPI falling below the 2% target reduces the chances of further interest rate rises in the foreseeable future, potentially weakening the pound.

?? USD - The US economy is performing very well, despite concerns over a trade war and another government shutdown potentially on the horizon. Core CPI and CPI are being released on Wednesday. The CPI reading is expected to be higher than the previous months’ at around 0.1% and Core CPI is expected to come out in line with expectations. On Thursday core retails sales, PPI and retail sales are all being released from the US. All this data gives the dollar another platform to outperform analysts’ expectations, and could potentially strengthen the dollar.

?? EUR - With analysts now forecasting that the ECB will keep monetary policy on hold to 2019, there is the potential that the euro could weaken against the dollar. Despite this the euro has held firm against the dollar and remains within existing resistance levels. This week the main data from Europe is German prelim GDP and flash GDP for the Eurozone.


GBP: British data is in the focus this week as GDP and manufacturing production data is released on Monday, and CPI is released on Wednesday. A Brexit vote is expected to take place before 27th February.
USD: The dollar remains relatively strong, although there are fears of another government shutdown.
EUR: Any potential Brexit developments may impact the euro. There is very little data from Europe this week, with European flash GDP and German GDP Thursday the highlights.


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