us federal reserve

Fed continue hawkish stance

12th April 2018 Market Update

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?? GBP – Yesterday the UK released details of industrial and manufacturing production for February both of which fell below expectations, the pound however remained strong. The first GDP estimate for Q1 was released and that came in below forecast. The pound suffered minimally and recovered any lost ground come close of business.

There will be no economic releases from the UK today. Theresa May will convene a special “war cabinet” today as the UK prepares for military action against the Syrian regime, much reaction in the markets is unlikely but it’s still worth keeping an eye on.

?? EUR – The euro stayed in a relatively tight range yesterday as there were no releases of significance.

Account from the ECB monetary policy meeting will be released today, normally this is largely ignored by the markets thus another quiet day for the euro ahead.

?? USD – The inflation figure was released for America yesterday which came in dead in line with the forecast which subsequently left the dollar largely unchanged throughout the day.

The Fed minutes were released in the evening and the key point was that all participants see GDP and inflation moving higher this year as well as more rate hikes. Although seemingly upbeat the dollar did not benefit.

Today the lesser looked at import and export prices indices are released. Initial jobless claims are expected to drop slightly whilst continuing claims are expected higher. Minimal movement is expected for the dollar today.

 

Key Announcements

?? EUR
12:30pm: ECB Monetary policy accounts

?? USD
13:30pm: Import price index – slight drop expected
13:30pm: Export price index – expected to remain the same

 

Summary: The pound looked likely to take a little blip in its recent seamless record with the GDP estimate falling below expectations, however it recovered any lost ground come close of business.
 
The Fed minutes were released in the evening and the key point was that all participants see GDP and inflation moving higher this year.

 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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