US Job Figures Point to Further Rate Cuts?

6th June 2019 Market Update

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?? GBP -  Sterling was buoyed yesterday afternoon after Markit Services PMI’s came in better at 51 ahead of an expected print of 50.6. The data eased concerns of a risk to the economy following the disappointing manufacturing and construction figures from earlier this week.

Back to Brexit and all eyes are on Boris Johnson and his strategy to deliver a break the EU. Since the start of the week the odds of Bo Jo succeeding May has been slashed from 7/4 to almost evens over the perceived ability for him to beat Corbyn in any general election.

No data out today but we have Mark Carney speaking in Tokyo at the Institute of International Finance Spring meeting.

?? EUR - Eurozone PMI’s came in better than expected in the morning at 52.9 versus 52.5 expected. The only country that disappointed was France where the figures marginally missed the mark.

Today's focus will be on Eurozone growth figures for the first quarter expected to remain at 1.2% year on year and later in the afternoon we have the ECB interest rate decision followed by the accompanying rate statement. Expectations are for the Bank to maintain its easing basis with no additional measures. No change is expected with regards to the inflation outlook but we could see a downbeat growth forecast as well as more information on the TLTRO3 terms.

?? USD -  The US dollar index hit its lowest since the end of March yesterday after ADP employment figures were wildly off the mark coming in at 27,000, much lower than an expected additional 180,000 jobs added in May. The data adds to the recent concerns of members of the Fed and the potential need to cut interest rates in the US over the coming year. Later in the afternoon, some of these losses were trimmed after ISM non-manufacturing came in higher than forecast.

Focus today will be on US trade balance figures expected at 1.30pm.

Summary:

GBP: UK services beat consensus to lift the Pound
EUR: ECB interest rate decision in focus
USD: ADP employment falls very shy of expectations

 

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