Brexit Draft Ready for EU

1st October 2019 Market Update

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🇬🇧 GBP –  Sterling moves were mixed yesterday after growth figures for the second quarter showed a contraction of 0.2%, raising fears that should we see another contraction in the months from July to September, then the UK could well be in a technical recession.

In a crucial move last night, Boris Johnsons officials finished working on a draft on the legal text of a Brexit deal due to be presented to EU officials within 24 hours. The reception his plan receives will determine any hope of securing an orderly exit by month end.

Manufacturing PMI’s are due today with markets expecting a further slowdown in the sector with the accompanying construction and service sector PMI’s due in the next few days; all of which will paint a picture the state of the UK economy in September.

🇪🇺 EUR – Spanish growth figures came in shy of expectations yesterday morning and German inflation figures in the afternoon also fell short of what was expected adding to the argument that perhaps the ECB was correct in unleashing its monetary easing programme. The only positive news came in the form of the Eurozone unemployment rate dropping to 7.4% but this did very little to stop the demise of the single-bloc currency as it now lies at its weakest levels versus the US dollar since May 2017.

Eurozone inflation figures are due out this morning with markets expecting the rate to remain at 1%. manufacturing PMI’s are also due out in the morning across a range of nations.

🇺🇸 USD –  The dollar continued to drive on to new highs yesterday with the dollar index now at 99.50, the highest level since May 2017; a move which will no doubt upset POTUS.

US manufacturing PMI’s are also due in the afternoon and a further positive print could well cause the dollar to rally to the key 100 level in the coming days.

 

Summary:

GBP: Q2 Growth Figures Indicate Recession Looming
EUR: Euro at Weakest Level for Two years
USD: Dollar Rallies to new two year highs


 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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