Brexit D Day Imminent

9th April 2019 Market Update

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🇬🇧 GBP –  Sterling had a negative day yesterday ahead of Theresa May’s meetings with France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Angela Merkel to argue for a short extension of the Brexit deadline until 30th June. Brexit talks between Labour and the Tories will continue today also in what looks to be a busy day of negotiating for Theresa May and her party.

Whilst Theresa travels to the continent, MP’s will debate the plans to ask for an extension until June 30th, possibly suggesting alternative dates. This comes after Parliament passed legislation yesterday designed to prevent the UK crashing out with no deal.

Sterling, now trading lower for the fourth day in a row, currently sits in the lower end of its monthly trading range with a break in Brexit still the most likely to bring a clear direction on the currency.

🇪🇺 EUR – There was no significant data released from the eurozone yesterday, with Germany’s trade balance the only thing of note. This had minimal impact on the exchange rate and came out slightly below expectations. The euro strengthened against the dollar and sterling across the course of yesterday despite the lack of data. Italian retail sales are out at 9am, and this is expected to show a retraction. This will add to Italian woes however it is unlikely to cause any market movement.

No economic data out today but the US has threatened to impose tariffs on EU goods worth up to US$11.2bn in retaliation for EU subsidies to Airbus. However, this seems to have had no impact on the euro yet, but developments will be closely watched by the markets.

🇺🇸 USD –  US Factory orders for the month of February showed a small increase but remained in negative territory yesterday. The dollar remained static against the pound yesterday, though it moved lower generally as technical resistance capped further gains and higher oil prices was dollar negative.

In addition, the Federal Reserve on Monday set out two proposals to modify regulations put in place after the financial crisis in 2008 as the industry has complained these are now too restrictive. The proposals will loosen rules for smaller foreign banks and big US banks.

Today, there is a lack of data, but business optimism could be in focus due to the trade tensions between the EU and US.

 

Summary:
GBP: Theresa Set to Plead for Further Extension
EUR: Currency Up Despite US imposing Tariffs
USD: Factory Orders Improve but Still remain Negative

 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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