europe union building

Barnier Brexit boost

11th September 2018 Market Update

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?? GBP – Industrial and manufacturing production released yesterday were both down on estimates but the bigger news was GDP, which for the first time was released as a monthly figure, this came in higher than expected and was a welcome boost for the Pound. Michel Barnier’s reported comments compounded the Pound’s strength, he said it is “realistic” to expect a Brexit deal in the next 6-8 weeks.

Today the record low unemployment rate is expected to remain the same as are average earnings but as always, the market will be ready for any divergence from what’s expected. Theresa May is chairing a cabinet meeting today and it’s expected to be a call to arms to back the Chequers deal.

?? EUR – Only investor confidence was out yesterday and was slightly lower than expected, however the market didn’t move off the back of it.

Today the lesser looked at employment figure, employment change, is expected to remain the same.

?? USD – No data from the States yesterday.

There is little out today regarding the US either. The Redbook index will be released but there is no consensus on that and job openings are expected slightly higher.

 

Key Announcements

?? GBP
09:30am: Unemployment rate – expected to remain at record low of 4%
09:30am: Average earnings – expected to remain at 2.4%

?? EUR
10:00am: Employment change – expected at 1.4%

?? USD
15:00pm: Job openings – expected to be slightly higher

 

Summary: Yesterday we had a whole raft of data from the UK with mixed results, but the key one being GDP – released higher than expected. Data from elsewhere was sparse. As usual, Brexit was at the forefront of thoughts.
 
We look ahead today with a focus on the UK again, with unemployment and average earnings data being released. Smaller pieces of data from the States and Europe will follow.

 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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