Positive Retail Sales boost demand for the pound

19th May 2017 Market Update

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🇬🇧 GBP – The pound surged yesterday against the US dollar after a much better than expected set of retail sales numbers. Many analysts had expected the figures to come in at 1% on the month and 1.9% on the year, though both came in much higher at 2.3% and 4% respectively.

The Office for National Statistics said sales rose thanks to Easter falling later this year. The year on year jump was far higher than expected and was helped by the warmer weather, according to retailers. April’s rebound is in stark contrast to March data, when sales saw the biggest fall in seven years.

We have no major economic data from the UK today, though being that we have traded through a key resistance level yesterday dealers could possibly be looking to square up any long Sterling positions they may hold heading into the weekend.

It should be noted that the pound has lost all of yesterday’s gains so far this morning.

🇪🇺 EUR – There was no Eurozone data yesterday to support a surging single currency at present. The euro is seeing its best winning run since November last year against the US dollar, amid the outcome of the French election at the start of the month and the tensions coming from across the Atlantic regarding Donald Trump and his “ties” with Russia. Following a similar pattern to the UK, it is another very quiet day data-wise in the Eurozone.

🇺🇸 USD – From across the Atlantic the US dollar was unfazed by the fall in jobless claims and the storm surrounding Donald Trump amid the frosty relations from within his own government. In recent days it has been made public that Donald Trump’s campaign team made contact with Russian officials at least 18 times during his presidential race, according to a new report. This is leading many to think that there is a real chance that there is something that the Trump team “may” be looking to hide or keep quiet. This does leave the dollar perhaps teetering on the edge of a cliff and any escalation of the storm could cause the currency to lose ground.

As with the UK and Eurozone, we have no data out from the United States today.


Key Announcements

🇨🇦 CAD
13:30pm – Canadian CPI (Inflation) Data


Our View: The pound is at a cross roads at present versus the US dollar. Having breached a key level yesterday, further upside could continue if we continue to hear more rumours regarding Donald Trump and his links to Russia.


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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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