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20 years of central bank independence

28th September 2017 Market Update

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🇬🇧 GBP – There was no economic data of note from the UK yesterday. However, Sterling maintained its rally against the euro and regained the high last seen in July. Jeremy Corbyn spoke at Labour’s annual party conference, however, this had minimal market impact.

Today both Theresa May and Mark Carney speak at the Bank of England’s conference celebrating 20 years of independence. Any further insight into Brexit negotiations, or of a potential interest rate rise, could strengthen/weaken the pound accordingly.

🇪🇺 EUR – Yesterday was very quiet from Europe, with the only thing of note being that monetary supply in the European economy is above expectations. Today is also very quiet for Europe, with Spanish CPI being the only relevant piece of data being released.

🇺🇸 USD – Core durable goods orders were released yesterday in line with expectations from the US, while crude oil inventories disappointed. Due to the regular nature of crude oil figures, this had minimal impact on the exchange rates.

Today sees the final reading of last quarter GDP being released. At this stage the majority of the data has been accounted for already, therefore, it is unlikely that the information will not read as expected. Should the previous reading of 3.0% not be reached, the market could be volatile in response.

 

Key Announcements

🇬🇧 GBP
09:15am – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative – Prime Minister May

🇺🇸 USD
21:00pm – Interest Rate Decision

 

Our View: Despite the uncertainties surrounding Brexit, the heat appears to be off Sterling at the moment. While the dollar has maintained its recent momentum, it will be interesting to see how much more the euro loses ground against both currencies in the short term. Apart from UK GDP data tomorrow, it is quite likely there will be a quiet end to the week.

 

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Darren Kilner

Darren Kilner

Darren is Head of Dealing at FairFX. Darren lives and breaths FX, his Mastermind topics are G8 currencies and economic forecasts.

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